House News & Analysis

A Good Year May Not Save These Three Vulnerable House Republicans Either

Nathan L. Gonzales October 23, 2014 · 1:27 PM EDT

In his recent column, “Weak GOP Candidates May Need More Than a Good Year,” Stu pointed out how a handful of under-performing Senate candidates could cost Republicans the majority. Similarly, though the House of Representatives is not in play, a trio of GOP incumbents could cost their party…

Wither the National House Vote?

Nathan L. Gonzales October 17, 2014 · 3:29 PM EDT

Democrats failed to win back the House in 2012 but took pride in discrediting the Republican majority by pointing to the National House Vote. So what happens if Republicans keep the majority and get more votes nationwide?

Last cycle, Democrats gained just eight seats, falling 17 short of…

Democrats Decidedly on Defense in the House

Nathan L. Gonzales October 10, 2014 · 3:15 PM EDT

The House playing field continues to shift in favor of Republicans as President Barack Obama’s slumping job approval numbers cast a shadow over the landscape and Democrats shift their financial resources from offensive opportunities to defensive positions.

At the beginning of the cycle, David Valadao of California, Rodney…

6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently

Nathan L. Gonzales October 10, 2014 · 10:16 AM EDT

While Democratic and Republican operatives have their own analysis on each race, they often agree on how close a race is and which candidate has the edge.

Sometimes, however, they have wildly different views on where races stand.

In California’s 52nd and Florida’s 2nd, for example, both…

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2014 · 10:20 AM EDT

I’m not certain how long a trend has to exist before it earns the status of an immutable political “law,” but three longtime truths are threatened this election cycle. Will all of them fall in November?

Trend #1: One party holds the Pennsylvania governorship for eight years and…

Could a Four-Second Mistake Cost a Candidate Thousands of Dollars?

Nathan L. Gonzales October 6, 2014 · 11:01 AM EDT

A disclaimer may seem like a rote few seconds in a campaign ad, but failing to follow the specific guidelines could have costly consequences for a candidate.

On Sept. 16, former Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., aired a 30-second ad titled, “How Could You?” that accused Democratic…

Democrats Focus on Open Seats, Weak Incumbents for House Bright Spots

Nathan L. Gonzales October 3, 2014 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s no secret that Democrats have virtually no chance of taking back the House next month, but there are a handful of districts where victory could make the rest of the night easier to swallow. 

Democrats have zeroed in on a quartet of competitive Republican open seats including…

Shift in Landscape Makes Bigger GOP House Gains Possible

Stuart Rothenberg October 1, 2014 · 3:31 PM EDT

Only three times since the Civil War, as any political junkie knows, has the president’s party gained House seats in midterm elections — in 1934, 1998 and 2002. It now seems quite clear 2014 won’t be another exception to that rule.

But a year and a half ago,…

The Election Results Don’t Matter

Nathan L. Gonzales September 24, 2014 · 4:59 PM EDT

What happens in this year’s midterm elections doesn’t matter. What elected officials and party strategists think happened, will carry far more weight into the next Congress and the 2016 elections.

What if Republicans win control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House?

It will…

Republicans Ready to Add to House Majority

Nathan L. Gonzales September 24, 2014 · 4:58 PM EDT

Republicans are likely to gain seats in the House this November, we just don’t know how many quite yet.

President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers continue to decline in a midterm election when voters will likely be open to a check-and-balance argument from Republicans. And the Democratic advantage…