House News & Analysis

The Fight for the House Looks Over

October 26, 2012 · 1:58 PM EDT

In looking at the fight for the House race-by-race, the only thing that we can say is that the fight is over. Republicans will keep their majority in the House in the next Congress, and their margin could well be similar to the one that they now have.

House Ratings Changes: Mixed Optimism for Both Parties

October 19, 2012 · 2:47 PM EDT

With less than three weeks until Election Day, our outlook for the House of Representatives remains little changed. We are making a dozen ratings changes this week -- seven toward Republicans and five toward Democrats as we take four races off our list of competitive contests.

The House…

Looking for House Upsets? Take a Look at These

Stuart Rothenberg October 19, 2012 · 10:11 AM EDT

I usually draw a blank when people ask me to offer a possible upset or two. After all, I’d rather not be surprised on election night, though there are almost always a couple of unexpected outcomes.

But I’ve been looking at some numbers recently and have been struck…

List of House Goners Not What We Expected

Stuart Rothenberg October 17, 2012 · 9:06 AM EDT

It is three weeks before Election Day and a handful of incumbents are already seeing the writing on the wall. They won’t be coming back to Congress. It’s time to look for other gainful employment or merely enjoy the quiet pleasures of forced retirement.

North Carolina Democratic Rep.…

Massachusetts Democrat John Tierney Moved to Lean Republican

Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2012 · 10:31 PM EDT

Veteran Democratic Rep. John Tierney (D) is up with a good TV spot addressing his family’s legal problems, but it looks like too little, too late. Tierney has cancelled his final weeks of TV, and polls show him trailing challenger Richard Tisei (R), who we have regarded for months…

House Democrats Need a Game-Changer (House Overview, October 12, 2012)

October 12, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

Ten days ago, Republican strategists seemed confident about their party’s ability to hold the House but started showing some signs of nervousness about their ability to withstand a disaster at the top of the ticket. But now, Mitt Romney’s resurgence has them feeling more comfortable -- even giddy --…

Can a Race Be Tight and Yet Not Competitive?

Stuart Rothenberg October 10, 2012 · 10:01 AM EDT

Each cycle, my goal as a handicapper is to identify Congressional races where the result will mean a partisan takeover, not merely where the outcome will be close.

To some, this may seem like an odd distinction. After all, if an election is close — within a few…

House Majority Remains Out of Democrats’ Grasp (House Overview, October 5, 2012)

October 5, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

With a month to go before the election, we are changing our ratings for a handful of House races but see no reason to alter our overall assessment that Republicans are likely to retain their majority in November.

The two parties are looking at some very…

Democratic Surge in House Races? Not So Fast

Stuart Rothenberg October 4, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

Conservative thinker William Kristol and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee usually don't see things the same way, but they seem to agree that the House of Representatives is "in play."

The Weekly Standard's Kristol raised that possibility, albeit with a few caveats, more than a week ago in…

House Majority Remains Out of Reach for Democrats (House Overview, September 28, 2012)

September 28, 2012 · 1:59 PM EDT

Publicly, Democrats insist that the House is “in play,” touting national polling that shows their party leading by a few points on the generic ballot. While President Obama and Senate Democrats appear to be gaining an advantage, a district-by-district analysis of the House continues to show Republicans well-positioned to…