Senate News & Analysis

Republican Path to Senate Majority Narrows (Senate Overview, September 28, 2012)

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September 28, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

The Senate playing field looks vastly different than either party had anticipated a year, or even six months ago -- and it’s moved decidedly in Democrats’ favor, in part because of campaign-specific developments and in part because of a general slippage in GOP numbers in states where Obama is…

‘State Waves’ and the Fight for the Senate

Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

While there is no evidence that a national partisan wave will develop between now and Nov. 6, there is every reason to expect a number of "state waves" that will prove to be challenging for some candidates - and for political handicappers.

In fact, candidates' abilities to fight…

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

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September 14, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

With Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s Missouri Senate seat moving from more likely than not to switch to the GOP to more likely than not to remain in Democratic hands, Republican chances for taking back the Senate have slipped.

The Senate is certainly still “in play” -- but only…

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2012 · 11:28 AM EDT

Democrats started licking their chops moments after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced that he had selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate.

Whether the reaction came from the national party's House and Senate campaign committees, President Barack Obama's re-election campaign or individual Democratic campaigns…

Convention: Same Goal, Altered Path for Democrats

Nathan L. Gonzales September 6, 2012 · 11:46 AM EDT

Not long ago, Democrats had it all: the first African-American president sitting in the Oval Office, the first female Speaker of the House and even a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Four years later, the only remaining piece - the presidency - might be taken away from them.

Convention: One Candidate’s Path is Another Candidate’s Hurdle for Democrats in Senate

Nathan L. Gonzales September 4, 2012 · 5:24 PM EDT

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Democratic strategists are cautiously optimistic that they will maintain their Senate majority, but, absent an unforeseen political wave, the party will do battle in a series of local contests where an asset in one state might be a hurdle in another.

“Voters of Wisconsin don’t…

Senate Ratings Changes: Races Shift as Playing Field Takes Shape

September 3, 2012 · 12:22 AM EDT

In the wake of GOP nominee Todd Akin’s media meltdown, it’s not just Missouri that appears to be trending away from Republicans lately.

After moving the Show-Me State to Pure Toss-Up last week, we are moving it again, to Lean Democrat. Akin, who held a double-digit lead before…

Convention: Blue State Sen. Brown (R) Doesn’t Shy Away from Ruby Red Event

Nathan L. Gonzales August 30, 2012 · 6:08 PM EDT

TAMPA, Fla. -- Sen. Scott Brown (R) may need a half a million Obama voters to get re-elected in Massachusetts, but that’s not keeping him away from appearing at the Republican Party’s biggest event.

“Mitt Romney is his friend,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior advisor to both Brown…

Connecticut Senate: Move to Lean Democrat

Stuart Rothenberg August 29, 2012 · 2:08 AM EDT

Less than two years ago, Republican Linda McMahon drew just 43 percent of the vote in Connecticut’s Senate race after spending over $50 million on her candidacy. Given that showing, there was little reason to believe than another run by McMahon, a businesswoman who ran a professional wrestling entertainment…

Missouri Senate: Move to Pure Toss-up

August 21, 2012 · 2:48 PM EDT

Two weeks ago, we were preparing to move the Missouri Senate race from Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican, if either businessman John Brunner or former state treasurer Sarah Steelman had won the GOP Senate primary on August 7 and the right to face Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).

Now,…