Senate News & Analysis

Indiana Primaries: Lugar Loses, House Races Come Into Focus

Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2012 · 1:00 PM EDT

To loyal readers of the Rothenberg Political Report, Sen. Richard Lugar’s primary loss is not a surprise.

“Lugar is a highly-respected moderate conservative with a reputation of being willing to work across the partisan aisle to get things done. But in the current political environment, experience is overrated…

Texas Senate: Primary Focus

Jessica Taylor May 4, 2012 · 1:28 PM EDT

In the Texas GOP Senate primary, if you’re not second, you might as well be last.

With the Republican contest tantamount to winning retiring Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison’s seat, frontrunner Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has been trying to top 50 percent in the May 29 primary…

Pennsylvania: Critz Defeats Colleague, Faces Competitive General Election

Jessica Taylor April 25, 2012 · 2:15 PM EDT

Two moderate Democrats from Pennsylvania won’t be returning to Congress next year after Tuesday’s primaries in the Keystone State -- but only one can blame the new make-up of his district for his loss.

In western Pennsylvania’s 12th District, Rep. Mark Critz pulled off an upset in his…

Florida Senate: Looking Tougher and Tougher for the GOP

Jessica Taylor April 20, 2012 · 11:58 AM EDT

 A chance to take out a Democratic incumbent in arguably the most critical swing state in the country just two years after the Republican tidal wave swept through the state seems like the GOP’s dream scenario. But in Florida, that chance increasingly looks like a slim possibility thanks to…

Don’t Believe the Anti-Incumbent Narrative

Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

Though it probably won’t start for a few more days, the “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members of Congress find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight,…

For Martha McKenna, All Politics Is Personal

Nathan L. Gonzales March 29, 2012 · 11:24 AM EDT

To her friends, Martha McKenna is Baltimore’s ambassador, but Democrats have chosen her to be a critical part of holding their Senate majority.

The 37-year-old Democratic operative was born in Chicago, but there is no question that Charm City is home. It’s where McKenna grew up, got her…

If Lugar Loses, Will Indiana Really Be in Play?

Stuart Rothenberg March 28, 2012 · 10:09 AM EDT

Now that the Club for Growth and other conservatives groups have decided to make a substantial investment in defeating veteran Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, and polling suggests a tightening race, it should be pretty clear even to the Senator’s most loyal supporters that he has a very serious fight…

Maine Senate: Winter Surprise

Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

It's not very often one party picks up a U.S. Senate seat without supporting its nominee or spending any money, but that might happen this year in Maine.

Sen. Olympia Snowe's surprise retirement was the definition of a game-changer-- taking a safe Republican seat and moving…

Utah Primaries: Power to the Precincts

Nathan L. Gonzales March 9, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

Utah’s primary isn’t for another three months, but Sen. Orrin Hatch’s electoral fate could be sealed next week.

The six-term GOP senator is trying to avoid following in the footsteps of his colleague, Bob Bennett, who not only lost reelection in 2010, but failed to make it out…

Nebraska and Hawaii: Studying Senate Handicapping

Stuart Rothenberg March 7, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

There is no single “right” way to handicap a race.

You can evaluate where the race is at a particular moment and “rate” what you see. Or, after noting the candidates’ current standing, you can make an informed projection about how the race will play out, changing your…