Senate News & Analysis

Democrats Likely to Hold Senate, Republican Gains in Doubt (Senate Overview, November 2, 2012)

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November 2, 2012 · 3:30 PM EDT

While Republicans are a virtual lock to hold the House, GOP chances of taking back the Senate remain decidedly long.

Republicans now look to have gained a narrow advantage in two states - Nevada and North Dakota - which have been toss-ups for much of the cycle, and…

The Economy Is Crumbling So Let’s Talk Abortion and Rape

Stuart Rothenberg October 31, 2012 · 9:34 AM EDT

The unemployment rate is still 7.8 percent, and the gross domestic product is growing at a sluggish 2 percent. Young people graduating college can’t find jobs and are living in their parents’ houses. Economies in Europe and Asia are weakening, suggesting additional problems in the year ahead for the…

The Fight for the Senate: Uphill for the GOP (Senate Overview, October 26, 2012)

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October 26, 2012 · 1:59 PM EDT

Democrats aren’t yet guaranteed to retain their Senate majority after November’s elections, but you have to think that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is feeling more and more secure about his party’s Senate prospects.

With Ohio only a GOP long-shot and prospects in Florida fading, Indiana a potential…

Indiana Senate Moves to Pure Toss-Up

October 24, 2012 · 2:45 PM EDT

Just when it looked like state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) might have been starting to gain his footing in the Indiana Senate race, an unforced error may have wiped away any small advantage he had in the race.

In Tuesday’s debate with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), in response…

Senate Fight: Still Too Early to Count Chickens

Stuart Rothenberg October 24, 2012 · 10:20 AM EDT

One year ago, Republicans had every reason to believe that they were poised to net at least four Senate seats in November and gain control of the chamber in the next Congress. A month ago, on the other hand, Democrats had reason to be confident that even if they…

Pennsylvania Sen. Casey (D) Moved from Safe to Favored

October 19, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

Is Sen. Bob Casey (D) this year’s October surprise?

The Pennsylvania Democrat’s re-election race was largely ignored for most of the cycle until recently when multiple public polls showed him in a surprisingly tight contest with wealthy businessman Tom Smith.

In the last 10 days, five polls…

Senate Strategists Look for Presidential Effect (Senate Overview, October 12, 2012)

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October 12, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

What a difference a week makes. Just when it appeared that President Obama was gaining an advantage and some key Senate races were slipping away from Republicans, Romney is back and all is not lost in the Republican fight for the majority.


But while Republican strategists…

Parties Locked in Fight for the Senate (Senate Overview, October 5, 2012)

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October 5, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

The Senate is still broadly “in play,” but that doesn’t mean that it is a pure toss-up.

Democrats have the edge because of the retirement of Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) and the implosion of Todd Akin in Missouri, potentially handing Democrats two seats that should be in…

Republican Path to Senate Majority Narrows (Senate Overview, September 28, 2012)

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September 28, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

The Senate playing field looks vastly different than either party had anticipated a year, or even six months ago -- and it’s moved decidedly in Democrats’ favor, in part because of campaign-specific developments and in part because of a general slippage in GOP numbers in states where Obama is…

‘State Waves’ and the Fight for the Senate

Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

While there is no evidence that a national partisan wave will develop between now and Nov. 6, there is every reason to expect a number of "state waves" that will prove to be challenging for some candidates - and for political handicappers.

In fact, candidates' abilities to fight…