Senate News & Analysis

GOP Incumbents Brace for Primary Losses, But Survive So Far

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 25, 2016 · 11:00 AM EDT

As Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and even Ben Carson harnessed the energy of anti-establishment voters in the Republican presidential race, GOP incumbents have grown worried they will be simultaneously swept out of office. But in spite of the volatility at the top of the ticket, Senate and House incumbents…

Senate Matchups Start to Solidify, But Landscape Unclear

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 25, 2016 · 10:57 AM EDT

The playing field for competitive Senate races could still change and grow, particularly if the bottom falls out of the election for Republicans because of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. But in three of the eight most competitive contests, the general election matchups are set after a series of…

Democratic Senate Takeover Probable, If Cruz or Trump Nominee

by Stuart Rothenberg March 11, 2016 · 9:01 AM EST

With Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz seemingly positioned to fight it out for the Republican presidential nomination, Democrats are now poised to take over the Senate in November.

The two Republicans still in the race who could help their party’s Senate prospects, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and…

2016 Senate Overview: Trump Looms Over Fight for the Majority

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 4, 2016 · 3:00 PM EST

Twelve months ago, no one imagined billionaire Donald J. Trump would be in firm control of the Republican Party’s presidential nominating process. And the past year is peppered with handicapping mistakes as everyone tried to fit Trump into historical election molds. 

On the surface, Trump looks like anything from a…

2016 Senate Overview (March 4, 2016) Alabama - Kansas

March 4, 2016 · 2:59 PM EST

ALABAMA – Richard Shelby (R) elected 1986 (50%), 1992 (65%), 1998 (63%), 2004 (68%), 2010 (65%). Shelby turned back a serious primary challenge from Jonathan McConnell on Tuesday, 65-28 percent. The senator’s allies were concerned that Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would turn out a crowd of new…

2016 Senate Overview (March 4, 2016) Kentucky - New Mexico

March 4, 2016 · 2:58 PM EST

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). May 17 primary. Paul dropped his run for president after the Iowa caucuses and is finally focused on running for re-election. He shouldn’t have a problem, considering Kentucky’s serious Republican lean in federal elections. But his presidential run gives Democrats an opening…

2016 Senate overview (March 4, 2016) New York - Wyoming

March 4, 2016 · 2:57 PM EST

NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). April 14 filing deadline. June 28 primary. Schumer ($24 million on Dec. 31) will win a fourth term. The only question is whether he will be the majority or minority leader in the next Congress. Safe for…

Obama Learns What You Sow in the Senate, You Reap in the White House

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 22, 2016 · 3:02 PM EST

If elected president, Republican Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio probably won’t keep much more more than the doorknobs from the current White House. But they could take away one valuable lesson from President Barack Obama: What you sow in the Senate, you’ll reap in the Oval Office.

Obama…

Scalia’s Death and the Fight for the Senate

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 19, 2016 · 3:00 PM EST

It already felt like this election was at full volume, but a Supreme Court vacancy has turned up the cycle to eleven.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia’s death brings an additional layer of urgency and importance to the current and future Senate majorities and the race for president. But…

Josh Mandel, Running for the Senate in Ohio…Again?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 19, 2016 · 2:57 PM EST

Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, who fell short by 327,000 votes in his 2012 challenge to incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, is already looking toward a possible 2018 rematch with the state’s senior senator, according to two Ohio media organizations.

It’s understandable if that news brings a collective “Oh no!”…