Outlook
Likely Republican gain of 37-42 seats, with the caveat that substantially larger GOP gains in the 45-55 seat range are quite possible. Republicans need to net 39 seats for a majority.
- → Shift Republican
- ← Shift Democratic
Total Seats in Play
| Democrat: 81 Republican: 12 |
|---|
Pure Toss-up
| Democrat: 11 Republican: 2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 2 | D | Bright | ||
| AR | 1 | D | Open | Berry | |
| AZ | 8 | D | Giffords | ||
| HI | 1 | R | Djou | ||
| IL | 10 | R | Open | Kirk | |
| IN | 9 | D | Hill | ||
| MI | 7 | D | Schauer | ||
| OH | 16 | D | Boccieri | ||
| PA | 7 | D | Open | Sestak | |
| SC | 5 | D | Spratt | ||
| TN | 8 | D | Open | Tanner | |
| WI | 7 | D | Open | Obey | → |
| WV | 1 | D | Open | Mollohan | |
Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
| Democrat: 9 Republican: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | D | Kirkpatrick | → | |
| AZ | 5 | D | Mitchell | → | |
| CA | 11 | D | McNerney | → | |
| GA | 8 | D | Marshall | ||
| IL | 14 | D | Foster | ||
| NY | 19 | D | Hall | ||
| PA | 10 | D | Carney | → | |
| SD | 1 | D | Herseth Sandlin | ||
| WI | 8 | D | Kagen | → | |
Lean Democrat
| Democrat: 16 Republican: 1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO | 3 | D | J.Salazar | → | |
| DE | 1 | R | Open | Castle | |
| IA | 3 | D | Boswell | ||
| ID | 1 | D | Minnick | ||
| IL | 17 | D | Hare | → | |
| IN | 2 | D | Donnelly | ||
| KY | 6 | D | Chandler | ||
| MO | 4 | D | Skelton | ||
| NC | 8 | D | Kissell | ||
| NJ | 3 | D | Adler | ||
| NM | 1 | D | Heinrich | ||
| NY | 1 | D | Bishop | ||
| OH | 13 | D | Sutton | ||
| OH | 18 | D | Space | ||
| TX | 23 | D | Rodriguez | ||
| VA | 9 | D | Boucher | ||
| WA | 2 | D | Larsen | → | |
Democrat Favored
| Democrat: 17 Republican: 1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 47 | D | Lo.Sanchez | → | |
| CT | 4 | D | Himes | → | |
| CT | 5 | D | C.Murphy | ||
| FL | 22 | D | Klein | ||
| KY | 3 | D | Yarmuth | → | |
| LA | 2 | R | Cao | ||
| MA | 10 | D | Open | Delahunt | |
| NY | 13 | D | McMahon | ||
| NY | 20 | D | S.Murphy | ||
| NY | 23 | D | Owens | ||
| NY | 25 | D | Maffei | → | |
| OR | 5 | D | Schrader | ||
| PA | 12 | D | Critz | ||
| PA | 17 | D | Holden | ||
| PA | 4 | D | Altmire | ||
| PA | 8 | D | P.Murphy | ||
| TN | 4 | D | Davis | ||
| VA | 11 | D | Connolly | ||
Toss-up/Tilt Republican
| Democrat: 14 Republican: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | 2 | D | Boyd | → | |
| FL | 8 | D | Grayson | ||
| MI | 1 | D | Open | Stupak | |
| MS | 1 | D | Childers | ||
| ND | 1 | D | Pomeroy | ||
| NH | 1 | D | Shea-Porter | ||
| NH | 2 | D | Open | Hodes | |
| NV | 3 | D | Titus | ||
| NY | 24 | D | Arcuri | ||
| PA | 11 | D | Kanjorski | ||
| PA | 3 | D | Dahlkemper | → | |
| VA | 2 | D | Nye | ||
| VA | 5 | D | Perriello | ||
| WA | 3 | D | Open | Baird | |
Lean Republican
| Democrat: 8 Republican: 2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 3 | R | Lungren | ||
| FL | 25 | R | Open | M.Diaz-Balart | |
| IL | 11 | D | Halvorson | → | |
| IN | 8 | D | Open | Ellsworth | → |
| KS | 3 | D | Open | Moore | |
| MD | 1 | D | Kratovil | ||
| NM | 2 | D | Teague | ||
| OH | 1 | D | Driehaus | ||
| OH | 15 | D | Kilroy | ||
| TX | 17 | D | Edwards | → | |
Republican Favored
| Democrat: 6 Republican: 6 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | 2 | D | Open | Snyder | |
| CA | 45 | R | Bono-Mack | ||
| CO | 4 | D | Markey | ||
| FL | 24 | D | Kosmas | → | |
| LA | 3 | D | Open | Melancon | |
| NE | 2 | R | Terry | ||
| NY | 29 | D | Open | VACANT Special | |
| OH | 12 | R | Tiberi | ||
| PA | 15 | R | Dent | ||
| PA | 6 | R | Gerlach | ||
| TN | 6 | D | Open | Gordon | |
| WA | 8 | R | Reichert | → | |